by gaRis
> Hate to start with the condescending “I told ya” catchphrase so I will abstain. Is it earth shuttering news that Lincoln leads this race with 12 nominations? Obviously not. Is it may be shocking that P.T. Anderson and his team The Master are shunned, leaving best film of the year with only 3 nods- all in the acting department? It just wasn’t *their* film. Oscar pundits are lamenting the Academy for robbing Affleck and Bigelow for Best Director. Most probably, they cancelled each other out, leaving breathing space in this overcrowded category for established auteurs like the ones of Tarantino and Haneke. Hey, we are forgetting…Benh! The Beard – look alike, Zaitlin has invaded Oscars with his Beasts of the southern Wild, being the real dark horse of this race, yes, even without the notorious editing nod (not win – just editing nomination). Life of Pi is absolutely gorgeous visually, but an uncanny fairy tale nonetheless whose 11 nods are far more than it deserves. It doesn’t feel like a threat to Lincoln: however it will play a significant part in the tech categories. And here comes da bomb; If you wanna win Oscar gold, think big. I mean, BIG 8: Best Director – Picture –Screenplay – Editing + a nod in every acting category. In a nutshell? Silver Linings Playbook. Harvey Weinstein and Co is back at it. Btw, do you need to chew some great Oscar factoids? Here’s some, courtesy of the Oscar guru @ScottFeinberg, Lead awards Analyst of The Hollywood Reporter:
• The Weinstein Co.'s Silver Linings Playbook becomes only the 14th film to ever receive at least one Oscar nomination in each of the four acting categories and the first to do so in 31 years. The others: My Man Godfrey (1936), Mrs. Miniver (1942), For Whom the Bell Tolls (1943), Johnny Belinda (1948), Sunset Blvd. (1950), A Streetcar Named Desire (1951), From Here to Eternity (1953), Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? (1966), Bonnie and Clyde (1967), Guess Who's Coming to Dinner (1967), Network (1976), Coming Home (1978) and Reds (1981).
• Universal's Les Miserables becomes the first musical in a decade to receive a best picture Oscar nomination, since Chicago (2002).
• 20th Century Fox's Life of Pi becomes only the fifth film released predominately in 3D to receive a best picture Oscar nomination. The others: Avatar (2009), Up (2009), Toy Story 3 (2010) and Hugo (2011).
• 20th Century Fox's Life of Pi becomes only the fourth film to score Oscar nominations in all seven technical Oscar categories: best cinematography, film editing, best original score, best sound editing, best sound mixing and best visual effects. The others: Titanic (1997), Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World (2002) and Hugo (2011) -- the first two of which also were set at sea!
• Sony's Zero Dark Thirty, which was directed by Kathryn Bigelow, becomes the 11th best picture Oscar nominee directed or co-directed by a woman. The other 10: Randa Haines' Children of a Lesser God (1986), Penny Marshall's Awakenings (1990), Barbra Streisand's The Prince of Tides (1991), Jane Campion's The Piano (1993), Sofia Coppola's Lost in Translation (2003), Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris' Little Miss Sunshine (2006), Danny Boyle and Loveleen Tandan's Slumdog Millionaire (2008), Lone Scherfig's An Education (2009) and Bigelow's own The Hurt Locker (2009), the only one of the lot that ended up winning.
• Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), who is 85, becomes the oldest best actress Oscar nominee in history, breaking the record held by Jessica Tandy, who was 80 when she was nominated -- and won -- for Driving Miss Daisy (1989). The only person older than Riva to ever receive an acting Oscar nomination was Gloria Stuart, who was 87 when she became a best supporting actress nominee for Titanic (1997).
• Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the southern Wild), who is 9 years old, becomes the youngest best actress Oscar nominee in history, breaking the record held by Keisha Castle-Hughes, who was 13 when she was nominated for Whale Rider (2003). The only two people younger than Wallis to ever receive an acting Oscar nomination were Jackie Cooper, also 9 -- but a few days younger than Wallis is -- when he became a best actor nominee for Skippy (1931), and Justin Henry, who was 8 when he became a best supporting actor nominee for Kramer vs. Kramer (1979).
• Three perennial nominees who never have won an Oscar will have a shot at breaking their losing streaks this year, all for their work on Skyfall: veteran sound mixer Greg P. Russell received his 16th best sound mixing nom (only one person -- his former mixing partner Kevin O'Connell, has received more nominations without winning: 20); composer Thomas Newman is 0-for-10 in years past, but maybe the eleventh will be the charm; and cinematographer Roger Deakins is hoping that he will finally win on his 10th try.
• Alan Arkin (Argo), a best supporting actor nominee, becomes the male actor with the longest span of time between his first and last acting Oscar nomination -- his first nomination came 46 years ago for The Russians Are Coming, The Russians Are Coming (1966), and he's obviously still in a position to extend his record! The male record was held by Henry Fonda, who had a 41-year span. The overall record is held by Katharine Hepburn, who had a 48-year span.
• Amy Adams (The Master) becomes only the eighth person to have received at least four best supporting actress Oscar nominations. Adams, whose noms all have come within seven years, joins Ethel Barrymore, Lee Grant, Agnes Moorehead, Geraldine Page, Maggie Smith and Maureen Stapleton, who never received another nom in the category after their fourth, and Thelma Ritter, who bagged two more. None of Adams' noms has resulted in a win yet, but she should be heartened by the fact that all but two of the other members of the 4+ Club -- Moorehead and Ritter -- wound up winning at least one Oscar.
• It has been a long time since the Academy last nominated Lincoln 's Sally Field (28 years ago for Places in the Heart), Silver Linings Playbook's Robert De Niro (21 years ago for Cape Fear), Helen Hunt (15 years ago for As Good as It Gets), Flight's Denzel Washington (11 years ago for Training Day) and The Impossible' s Naomi Watts (9 years ago for 21 Grams).
• The Weinstein Co.'s Silver Linings Playbook becomes only the 14th film to ever receive at least one Oscar nomination in each of the four acting categories and the first to do so in 31 years. The others: My Man Godfrey (1936), Mrs. Miniver (1942), For Whom the Bell Tolls (1943), Johnny Belinda (1948), Sunset Blvd. (1950), A Streetcar Named Desire (1951), From Here to Eternity (1953), Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? (1966), Bonnie and Clyde (1967), Guess Who's Coming to Dinner (1967), Network (1976), Coming Home (1978) and Reds (1981).
• Universal's Les Miserables becomes the first musical in a decade to receive a best picture Oscar nomination, since Chicago (2002).
• 20th Century Fox's Life of Pi becomes only the fifth film released predominately in 3D to receive a best picture Oscar nomination. The others: Avatar (2009), Up (2009), Toy Story 3 (2010) and Hugo (2011).
• 20th Century Fox's Life of Pi becomes only the fourth film to score Oscar nominations in all seven technical Oscar categories: best cinematography, film editing, best original score, best sound editing, best sound mixing and best visual effects. The others: Titanic (1997), Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World (2002) and Hugo (2011) -- the first two of which also were set at sea!
• Sony's Zero Dark Thirty, which was directed by Kathryn Bigelow, becomes the 11th best picture Oscar nominee directed or co-directed by a woman. The other 10: Randa Haines' Children of a Lesser God (1986), Penny Marshall's Awakenings (1990), Barbra Streisand's The Prince of Tides (1991), Jane Campion's The Piano (1993), Sofia Coppola's Lost in Translation (2003), Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris' Little Miss Sunshine (2006), Danny Boyle and Loveleen Tandan's Slumdog Millionaire (2008), Lone Scherfig's An Education (2009) and Bigelow's own The Hurt Locker (2009), the only one of the lot that ended up winning.
• Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), who is 85, becomes the oldest best actress Oscar nominee in history, breaking the record held by Jessica Tandy, who was 80 when she was nominated -- and won -- for Driving Miss Daisy (1989). The only person older than Riva to ever receive an acting Oscar nomination was Gloria Stuart, who was 87 when she became a best supporting actress nominee for Titanic (1997).
• Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the southern Wild), who is 9 years old, becomes the youngest best actress Oscar nominee in history, breaking the record held by Keisha Castle-Hughes, who was 13 when she was nominated for Whale Rider (2003). The only two people younger than Wallis to ever receive an acting Oscar nomination were Jackie Cooper, also 9 -- but a few days younger than Wallis is -- when he became a best actor nominee for Skippy (1931), and Justin Henry, who was 8 when he became a best supporting actor nominee for Kramer vs. Kramer (1979).
• Three perennial nominees who never have won an Oscar will have a shot at breaking their losing streaks this year, all for their work on Skyfall: veteran sound mixer Greg P. Russell received his 16th best sound mixing nom (only one person -- his former mixing partner Kevin O'Connell, has received more nominations without winning: 20); composer Thomas Newman is 0-for-10 in years past, but maybe the eleventh will be the charm; and cinematographer Roger Deakins is hoping that he will finally win on his 10th try.
• Alan Arkin (Argo), a best supporting actor nominee, becomes the male actor with the longest span of time between his first and last acting Oscar nomination -- his first nomination came 46 years ago for The Russians Are Coming, The Russians Are Coming (1966), and he's obviously still in a position to extend his record! The male record was held by Henry Fonda, who had a 41-year span. The overall record is held by Katharine Hepburn, who had a 48-year span.
• Amy Adams (The Master) becomes only the eighth person to have received at least four best supporting actress Oscar nominations. Adams, whose noms all have come within seven years, joins Ethel Barrymore, Lee Grant, Agnes Moorehead, Geraldine Page, Maggie Smith and Maureen Stapleton, who never received another nom in the category after their fourth, and Thelma Ritter, who bagged two more. None of Adams' noms has resulted in a win yet, but she should be heartened by the fact that all but two of the other members of the 4+ Club -- Moorehead and Ritter -- wound up winning at least one Oscar.
• It has been a long time since the Academy last nominated Lincoln 's Sally Field (28 years ago for Places in the Heart), Silver Linings Playbook's Robert De Niro (21 years ago for Cape Fear), Helen Hunt (15 years ago for As Good as It Gets), Flight's Denzel Washington (11 years ago for Training Day) and The Impossible' s Naomi Watts (9 years ago for 21 Grams).
Let’s travel quickly through Thursday’s Nominations’ final results per Category. I dare to predict the favourite, the alternate winner and in a few certain cases the dark horse without further ado. There will be just one update which I assure you won’t be on the final day before the Awards Ceremony (February 24th): To my understanding, the final day on which the ballots are sent should equally be the final prognostications date:
Actor in a Leading Role
• Bradley Cooper in "Silver Linings Playbook" (Alternate Winner)
• Daniel Day-Lewis in "Lincoln" (Favourite)
• Hugh Jackman in "Les Miserables"
• Joaquin Phoenix in "The Master"
• Denzel Washington in "Flight"
It is DDL’s third – history making leading Oscar to lose. The “should win” choice, Joaquin Phoenix barely made it in. Bradley Cooper is just happy to enjoy the ride. You know, just like Jean Dujardin last year. Too early for Lewis for the third one at his 55? Silver Linings winning big? It’s Cinderella man’s victory then.
Actor in a Supporting Role
• Alan Arkin in "Argo"
• Robert De Niro in "Silver Linings Playbook" (Favourite)
• Philip Seymour Hoffman in "The Master"
• Tommy Lee Jones in "Lincoln" (Alternate Winner)
• Christoph Waltz in "Django Unchained"
Everyone’s a (past) winner here. DeNiro is clearly the emotional favourite. I hated T.L. Jones hairpiece – other than that he was nothing less than excellent in Lincoln. If Lincoln prevails (more than 60% probability right now) he gets it.
Actress in a Leading Role
• Jessica Chastain in "Zero Dark Thirty"
• Jennifer Lawrence in "Silver Linings Playbook" (Favourite)
• Emmanuelle Riva in "Amour"
• Quvenzhané Wallis in "Beasts of the southern Wild" (Dark Horse)
• Naomi Watts in "The Impossible" (Alternate Winner)
JLaw is awesome. She’s the real package deal. Chastain couldn’t show range in a non-actors ‘driven film. I am trying to save my venomous comment for Watts’s undeserved fifth (?) spot but she’s clearly adored. There’s a slight chance for 9 y.o. Wallis to write history. If Beasts finally strike gold, she’s right there. Riva has her 86th birthday on awards ceremony day. Some say it’s destiny for her to win.
Actress in a Supporting Role
• Amy Adams in "The Master" (Alternate Winner)
• Sally Field in "Lincoln"
• Anne Hathaway in "Les Miserables" (Favourite)
• Helen Hunt in "The Sessions"
• Jacki Weaver in "Silver Linings Playbook"
How on earth it is possible to stop Hathaway’s galloping for the win after her I Dreamed a Dream performance. It’s the Hudson (Dreamgirls) effect. Funnily, Adams is overdue (see stats) in her only seven years of top tier film career. Also, take note: Jacki Weaver’s out of the blue appearance ratifies the gigantic Silver Linings ensemble appeal in the actor-centric Academy.
Animated Feature Film
• "Brave" Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman
• "Frankenweenie" Tim Burton (Favourite)
• "Paranorman" Sam Fell and Chris Butler
• "The Pirates! Band of Misfits" Peter Lord (Alternate Winner)
• "Wreck-it Ralph" Rich Moore
Talking overdue Tim Burton comes directly to mind. It feels like his last chance with a very personal animated film. Although Brave and Paranorman are the obvious alternates, yet I have that hunch The Pirates can blow the house down (ZerVo). Call it my No Guts- No Glory prediction.
Cinematography
• "Anna Karenina" Seamus McGarvey
• "Django Unchained" Robert Richardson
• "Life of Pi" Claudio Miranda (Favourite)
• "Lincoln" Janusz Kaminski
• "Skyfall" Roger Deakins (Alternate Winner)
Pi looks stunning, there’s no denying that. Along with the visual effects here lies the basis of
the Academy’s admiration for it. On the other hand WHEN is Deakins finally winning his so effing deserved Oscar?
Costume Design
• "Anna Karenina" Jacqueline Durran (Alternate Winner)
• "Les Miserables" Paco Delgado
• "Lincoln" Joanna Johnston (Favourite)
• "Mirror Mirror" Eiko Ishioka
• "Snow White and the Huntsman" Colleen Atwood
This must be Lincoln s turn to win here. Meticulous work, although Karenina sports flashier and lavisher costumes. Les Miserables should win, yet costumes are the singular category that usually goes with the film that wins big at the Oscars.
Directing
• "Amour" Michael Haneke
• "Beasts of the southern Wild" Benh Zeitlin (Dark Horse)
• "Life of Pi" Ang Lee
• "Lincoln" Steven Spielberg (Favourite)
• "Silver Linings Playbook" David O. Russell (Alternate Winner)
Despite my strong objections pertaining to Spielberg’s direction, I must submit to the general consensus. Haneke and Lee are both the auteurs who the Academy recognises for their distinctive artistic vision. That leaves us with David O’Russel who had to overthrow Bigelow-Affleck-Hooper for this invaluable fifth slot for Silver Linings potential upset. Similarly, Benh Zeitlin has come a long way with his first feature and a split Best Picture – Best Director vote could result in a thunder!
Documentary Feature
• "5 Broken Cameras"
Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi
• "The Gatekeepers" (Favourite)
Nominees to be determined
• "How to Survive a Plague"
Nominees to be determined
• "The Invisible War"
Nominees to be determined
• "Searching for Sugar Man" (Alternate Winner)
Nominees to be determined
Without The Imposter it appears to become a rather predictable race, so unlikely for this category. Not one of the best years for docs.
Film Editing
• "Argo" William Goldenberg (Alternate Winner)
• "Life of Pi" Tim Squyres
• "Lincoln" Michael Kahn
• "Silver Linings Playbook" Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
• "Zero Dark Thirty" Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg (Favourite)
What Argo and Zero Dark Thirty have so much in common is…wait a minute! William Goldenberg. Outstanding work in both films, far more superior than the direction itself (especially in Affleck’s case).
Foreign Language Film
• "Amour" Austria (Favourite)
• "Kon-Tiki" Norway
• "No" Chile
• "A Royal Affair" Denmark (Alternate Winner)
• "War Witch" Canada
Despite the long tradition of huge names losing here, I really can’t contemplate Amour going away empty handed with its Picture, Directing, Screenplay and Lead. Actress nods. It’s simply insane not to consider this a done deal. Surprisingly enough, my *should win* in this case is the Dane A Royal Affair, knowingly being in the minority here.
Makeup and Hairstyling
• "Hitchcock"
Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel
• "The Hobbit" (Favourite)
Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane
• "Les Miserables" (Alternate Winner)
Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell
A. Hopkins’ makeup in Hitchcock is plainly atrocious. ‘Nuff said. Hobbit is marvellous where it’s expected to be.
Music (Original Score)
• "Anna Karenina" Dario Marianelli
• "Argo" Alexandre Desplat
• "Life of Pi" Mychael Danna (Alternate Winner)
• "Lincoln" John Williams (Favourite)
• "Skyfall" Thomas Newman
Williams is a league of his own. His scores should be out of competition. He’s the reason why Spielberg’s films wear their hearts on their sleeves. This one is not the case. The (al)most restrained Williams’ score since times immemorial. By contrast, this is our very own (Manitoba, Canada) Mychael Danna’s (Moneyball, Exotica) first nomination. Long overdue, it might be his chance this time around.
Music (Original Song)
• "Before My Time" from "Chasing Ice"
Music and Lyric by J. Ralph
• "Everybody Needs A Best Friend" from "Ted"
Music by Walter Murphy; Lyric by Seth MacFarlane
• "Pi's Lullaby" from "Life of Pi"
Music by Mychael Danna; Lyric by Bombay Jayashri
• "Skyfall" from "Skyfall" (Favourite)
Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
• "Suddenly" from "Les Miserables" (Alternate Winner)
Music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil
The mere fact that Les Miserables are so poorly represented here shows lack of voters’ backing of the film. As for Adele, she’s too big to ignore in one of the TOP 5 classiest Bond themes ever.
Best Picture
• "Amour" Nominees to be determined
• "Argo" Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck and George Clooney, Producers
• "Beasts of the southern Wild" Dan Janvey, Josh Penn and Michael Gottwald, Producers (Dark Horse)
• "Django Unchained" Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin and Pilar Savone, Producers
• "Les Miserables" Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward and Cameron Mackintosh, Producers
• "Life of Pi" Gil Netter, Ang Lee and David Womark, Producers
• "Lincoln" Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers (Favourite)
• "Silver Linings Playbook" Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen and Jonathan Gordon, Producers (Alternate Winner)
• "Zero Dark Thirty" Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow and Megan Ellison, Producers
Here comes the ultimate conundrum after a series of easy guesses year after year, in the post-Crash era. Lincoln has “it’s mine to lose” all over its illustrious production façade. Argo - Django Unchained - Zero Dark Thirty – Les Miserables - NO directing nod. Life of Pi no acting nods. Amour is the predicted best film in foreign language winner and sincerely, I think The Artist was as French as it gets for the Academy. Beasts are the dark horse, being the fascinating first feature that might be a tad premature for its creator (Zeitlin) to collect this crown jewel of accolades. Yep, it’s Silver Linings Playbook ladies and gents, that’s the little movie- that- could with nods in ALL big Oscar categories. And of course the name behind the curtain: Harvey. Harvey Weinstein.
Production Design
• "Anna Karenina"
Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
• "The Hobbit"
Production Design: Dan Hennah; Set Decoration: Ra Vincent and Simon Bright
• "Les Miserables" (Alternate Winner)
Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Anna Lynch-Robinson
• "Life of Pi"
Production Design: David Gropman; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
• "Lincoln" (Favourite)
Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson
Lincoln should have this in the bag, particularly in case of a 6-9 statuettes sweep. Les Miserables is all about its production design, other than that the rest is summed up in one word: Bombastic.
Sound Editing
• "Argo" Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn (Alternate Winner)
• "Django Unchained" Wylie Stateman
• "Life of Pi" Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton
• "Skyfall" Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers
• "Zero Dark Thirty" Paul N.J. Ottosson (Favourite)
Ottoson’s work is really unbelievable in Zero Dark Thirty. A notch down there’s Argo, fatally the movie overshadowed in every single level by its *big daddy* Zero Dark Thirty.
Sound Mixing
• "Argo"
John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose Antonio Garcia
• "Les Miserables" (Alternate Winner)
Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes
• "Life of Pi"
Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and Drew Kunin
• "Lincoln"
Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Ronald Judkins
• "Skyfall" (Favourite)
Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson
Live singing is more than just a directorial trick; it’s a Sisyphean technical task which worked impressively in Les Miserables. But, there’s a God above and Greg P. Russell MUST win for Skyfall.
Visual Effects
• "The Hobbit" (Alternate Winner)
Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White
• "Life of Pi" (Favourite)
Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott
• "The Avengers"
Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick
• "Prometheus"
Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill
• "Snow White and the Huntsman"
Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson
A Hobbit vs Life of Pi shoot –out, makes me think how awkward it feels to even begin anticipating another film to win in the year that an instalment of the Tolkien franchise is in theaters by Jackson – Del Toro and Co. However, The Hobbit' s anaemic performance has been translated in significantly curtailed nominations and it doesn’t really appear invincible. Plus Life of Pi brings another (natural) world to life in an incredibly seamless fashion.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
• "Argo" Screenplay by Chris Terrio
• "Beasts of the southern Wild" Screenplay by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin (Dark Horse)
• "Life of Pi" Screenplay by David Magee
• "Lincoln" Screenplay by Tony Kushner (Favourite)
• "Silver Linings Playbook" Screenplay by David O. Russell (Alternate Winner)
Lincoln is strikingly Tony Kushner’s film, its epicenter and inner core gravity. If Russel will manage to upset here, it’s game over for Lincoln s Oscar adventure. Then once again, Zeitlein’s little Beasts might overturn this year’s race. Academy is always pro surprises.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
• "Amour" Written by Michael Haneke (Favourite)
• "Django Unchained" Written by Quentin Tarantino
• "Flight" Written by John Gatins
• "Moonrise kingdom" Written by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola (Alternate Winner)
• "Zero Dark Thirty" Written by Mark Boal
Last and certainly not least, this is the most ludicrous snub of the year by Academy membership. Paul Thomas Anderson is out (The Master). It beats me to the very end of my existence. Thankfully Wes Anderson sneaked in, followed by the predictably worthy mentions of Tarantino and Haneke. Even the enigmatic Mark Boal outlived Kathryn Bigelow’s elimination. So, who’s holding the fifth prestigious spot… John Gatins (Flight)? Seriously? Academy, you could do so much better here. (LOOPER, anyone?)
Follow me on Twitter: @TakisGaris. I will answer every question you might entertain about the Oscars. Also share with me any thoughts on your projected winners. Golden Globes on Sunday with live twitter coverage- only by Moviesltd.gr. The real race has just begun.
Actor in a Leading Role
• Bradley Cooper in "Silver Linings Playbook" (Alternate Winner)
• Daniel Day-Lewis in "Lincoln" (Favourite)
• Hugh Jackman in "Les Miserables"
• Joaquin Phoenix in "The Master"
• Denzel Washington in "Flight"
It is DDL’s third – history making leading Oscar to lose. The “should win” choice, Joaquin Phoenix barely made it in. Bradley Cooper is just happy to enjoy the ride. You know, just like Jean Dujardin last year. Too early for Lewis for the third one at his 55? Silver Linings winning big? It’s Cinderella man’s victory then.
Actor in a Supporting Role
• Alan Arkin in "Argo"
• Robert De Niro in "Silver Linings Playbook" (Favourite)
• Philip Seymour Hoffman in "The Master"
• Tommy Lee Jones in "Lincoln" (Alternate Winner)
• Christoph Waltz in "Django Unchained"
Everyone’s a (past) winner here. DeNiro is clearly the emotional favourite. I hated T.L. Jones hairpiece – other than that he was nothing less than excellent in Lincoln. If Lincoln prevails (more than 60% probability right now) he gets it.
Actress in a Leading Role
• Jessica Chastain in "Zero Dark Thirty"
• Jennifer Lawrence in "Silver Linings Playbook" (Favourite)
• Emmanuelle Riva in "Amour"
• Quvenzhané Wallis in "Beasts of the southern Wild" (Dark Horse)
• Naomi Watts in "The Impossible" (Alternate Winner)
JLaw is awesome. She’s the real package deal. Chastain couldn’t show range in a non-actors ‘driven film. I am trying to save my venomous comment for Watts’s undeserved fifth (?) spot but she’s clearly adored. There’s a slight chance for 9 y.o. Wallis to write history. If Beasts finally strike gold, she’s right there. Riva has her 86th birthday on awards ceremony day. Some say it’s destiny for her to win.
Actress in a Supporting Role
• Amy Adams in "The Master" (Alternate Winner)
• Sally Field in "Lincoln"
• Anne Hathaway in "Les Miserables" (Favourite)
• Helen Hunt in "The Sessions"
• Jacki Weaver in "Silver Linings Playbook"
How on earth it is possible to stop Hathaway’s galloping for the win after her I Dreamed a Dream performance. It’s the Hudson (Dreamgirls) effect. Funnily, Adams is overdue (see stats) in her only seven years of top tier film career. Also, take note: Jacki Weaver’s out of the blue appearance ratifies the gigantic Silver Linings ensemble appeal in the actor-centric Academy.
Animated Feature Film
• "Brave" Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman
• "Frankenweenie" Tim Burton (Favourite)
• "Paranorman" Sam Fell and Chris Butler
• "The Pirates! Band of Misfits" Peter Lord (Alternate Winner)
• "Wreck-it Ralph" Rich Moore
Talking overdue Tim Burton comes directly to mind. It feels like his last chance with a very personal animated film. Although Brave and Paranorman are the obvious alternates, yet I have that hunch The Pirates can blow the house down (ZerVo). Call it my No Guts- No Glory prediction.
Cinematography
• "Anna Karenina" Seamus McGarvey
• "Django Unchained" Robert Richardson
• "Life of Pi" Claudio Miranda (Favourite)
• "Lincoln" Janusz Kaminski
• "Skyfall" Roger Deakins (Alternate Winner)
Pi looks stunning, there’s no denying that. Along with the visual effects here lies the basis of
the Academy’s admiration for it. On the other hand WHEN is Deakins finally winning his so effing deserved Oscar?
Costume Design
• "Anna Karenina" Jacqueline Durran (Alternate Winner)
• "Les Miserables" Paco Delgado
• "Lincoln" Joanna Johnston (Favourite)
• "Mirror Mirror" Eiko Ishioka
• "Snow White and the Huntsman" Colleen Atwood
This must be Lincoln s turn to win here. Meticulous work, although Karenina sports flashier and lavisher costumes. Les Miserables should win, yet costumes are the singular category that usually goes with the film that wins big at the Oscars.
Directing
• "Amour" Michael Haneke
• "Beasts of the southern Wild" Benh Zeitlin (Dark Horse)
• "Life of Pi" Ang Lee
• "Lincoln" Steven Spielberg (Favourite)
• "Silver Linings Playbook" David O. Russell (Alternate Winner)
Despite my strong objections pertaining to Spielberg’s direction, I must submit to the general consensus. Haneke and Lee are both the auteurs who the Academy recognises for their distinctive artistic vision. That leaves us with David O’Russel who had to overthrow Bigelow-Affleck-Hooper for this invaluable fifth slot for Silver Linings potential upset. Similarly, Benh Zeitlin has come a long way with his first feature and a split Best Picture – Best Director vote could result in a thunder!
Documentary Feature
• "5 Broken Cameras"
Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi
• "The Gatekeepers" (Favourite)
Nominees to be determined
• "How to Survive a Plague"
Nominees to be determined
• "The Invisible War"
Nominees to be determined
• "Searching for Sugar Man" (Alternate Winner)
Nominees to be determined
Without The Imposter it appears to become a rather predictable race, so unlikely for this category. Not one of the best years for docs.
Film Editing
• "Argo" William Goldenberg (Alternate Winner)
• "Life of Pi" Tim Squyres
• "Lincoln" Michael Kahn
• "Silver Linings Playbook" Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
• "Zero Dark Thirty" Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg (Favourite)
What Argo and Zero Dark Thirty have so much in common is…wait a minute! William Goldenberg. Outstanding work in both films, far more superior than the direction itself (especially in Affleck’s case).
Foreign Language Film
• "Amour" Austria (Favourite)
• "Kon-Tiki" Norway
• "No" Chile
• "A Royal Affair" Denmark (Alternate Winner)
• "War Witch" Canada
Despite the long tradition of huge names losing here, I really can’t contemplate Amour going away empty handed with its Picture, Directing, Screenplay and Lead. Actress nods. It’s simply insane not to consider this a done deal. Surprisingly enough, my *should win* in this case is the Dane A Royal Affair, knowingly being in the minority here.
Makeup and Hairstyling
• "Hitchcock"
Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel
• "The Hobbit" (Favourite)
Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane
• "Les Miserables" (Alternate Winner)
Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell
A. Hopkins’ makeup in Hitchcock is plainly atrocious. ‘Nuff said. Hobbit is marvellous where it’s expected to be.
Music (Original Score)
• "Anna Karenina" Dario Marianelli
• "Argo" Alexandre Desplat
• "Life of Pi" Mychael Danna (Alternate Winner)
• "Lincoln" John Williams (Favourite)
• "Skyfall" Thomas Newman
Williams is a league of his own. His scores should be out of competition. He’s the reason why Spielberg’s films wear their hearts on their sleeves. This one is not the case. The (al)most restrained Williams’ score since times immemorial. By contrast, this is our very own (Manitoba, Canada) Mychael Danna’s (Moneyball, Exotica) first nomination. Long overdue, it might be his chance this time around.
Music (Original Song)
• "Before My Time" from "Chasing Ice"
Music and Lyric by J. Ralph
• "Everybody Needs A Best Friend" from "Ted"
Music by Walter Murphy; Lyric by Seth MacFarlane
• "Pi's Lullaby" from "Life of Pi"
Music by Mychael Danna; Lyric by Bombay Jayashri
• "Skyfall" from "Skyfall" (Favourite)
Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
• "Suddenly" from "Les Miserables" (Alternate Winner)
Music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil
The mere fact that Les Miserables are so poorly represented here shows lack of voters’ backing of the film. As for Adele, she’s too big to ignore in one of the TOP 5 classiest Bond themes ever.
Best Picture
• "Amour" Nominees to be determined
• "Argo" Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck and George Clooney, Producers
• "Beasts of the southern Wild" Dan Janvey, Josh Penn and Michael Gottwald, Producers (Dark Horse)
• "Django Unchained" Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin and Pilar Savone, Producers
• "Les Miserables" Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward and Cameron Mackintosh, Producers
• "Life of Pi" Gil Netter, Ang Lee and David Womark, Producers
• "Lincoln" Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers (Favourite)
• "Silver Linings Playbook" Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen and Jonathan Gordon, Producers (Alternate Winner)
• "Zero Dark Thirty" Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow and Megan Ellison, Producers
Here comes the ultimate conundrum after a series of easy guesses year after year, in the post-Crash era. Lincoln has “it’s mine to lose” all over its illustrious production façade. Argo - Django Unchained - Zero Dark Thirty – Les Miserables - NO directing nod. Life of Pi no acting nods. Amour is the predicted best film in foreign language winner and sincerely, I think The Artist was as French as it gets for the Academy. Beasts are the dark horse, being the fascinating first feature that might be a tad premature for its creator (Zeitlin) to collect this crown jewel of accolades. Yep, it’s Silver Linings Playbook ladies and gents, that’s the little movie- that- could with nods in ALL big Oscar categories. And of course the name behind the curtain: Harvey. Harvey Weinstein.
Production Design
• "Anna Karenina"
Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
• "The Hobbit"
Production Design: Dan Hennah; Set Decoration: Ra Vincent and Simon Bright
• "Les Miserables" (Alternate Winner)
Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Anna Lynch-Robinson
• "Life of Pi"
Production Design: David Gropman; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
• "Lincoln" (Favourite)
Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson
Lincoln should have this in the bag, particularly in case of a 6-9 statuettes sweep. Les Miserables is all about its production design, other than that the rest is summed up in one word: Bombastic.
Sound Editing
• "Argo" Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn (Alternate Winner)
• "Django Unchained" Wylie Stateman
• "Life of Pi" Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton
• "Skyfall" Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers
• "Zero Dark Thirty" Paul N.J. Ottosson (Favourite)
Ottoson’s work is really unbelievable in Zero Dark Thirty. A notch down there’s Argo, fatally the movie overshadowed in every single level by its *big daddy* Zero Dark Thirty.
Sound Mixing
• "Argo"
John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose Antonio Garcia
• "Les Miserables" (Alternate Winner)
Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes
• "Life of Pi"
Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and Drew Kunin
• "Lincoln"
Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Ronald Judkins
• "Skyfall" (Favourite)
Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson
Live singing is more than just a directorial trick; it’s a Sisyphean technical task which worked impressively in Les Miserables. But, there’s a God above and Greg P. Russell MUST win for Skyfall.
Visual Effects
• "The Hobbit" (Alternate Winner)
Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White
• "Life of Pi" (Favourite)
Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott
• "The Avengers"
Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick
• "Prometheus"
Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill
• "Snow White and the Huntsman"
Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson
A Hobbit vs Life of Pi shoot –out, makes me think how awkward it feels to even begin anticipating another film to win in the year that an instalment of the Tolkien franchise is in theaters by Jackson – Del Toro and Co. However, The Hobbit' s anaemic performance has been translated in significantly curtailed nominations and it doesn’t really appear invincible. Plus Life of Pi brings another (natural) world to life in an incredibly seamless fashion.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
• "Argo" Screenplay by Chris Terrio
• "Beasts of the southern Wild" Screenplay by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin (Dark Horse)
• "Life of Pi" Screenplay by David Magee
• "Lincoln" Screenplay by Tony Kushner (Favourite)
• "Silver Linings Playbook" Screenplay by David O. Russell (Alternate Winner)
Lincoln is strikingly Tony Kushner’s film, its epicenter and inner core gravity. If Russel will manage to upset here, it’s game over for Lincoln s Oscar adventure. Then once again, Zeitlein’s little Beasts might overturn this year’s race. Academy is always pro surprises.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
• "Amour" Written by Michael Haneke (Favourite)
• "Django Unchained" Written by Quentin Tarantino
• "Flight" Written by John Gatins
• "Moonrise kingdom" Written by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola (Alternate Winner)
• "Zero Dark Thirty" Written by Mark Boal
Last and certainly not least, this is the most ludicrous snub of the year by Academy membership. Paul Thomas Anderson is out (The Master). It beats me to the very end of my existence. Thankfully Wes Anderson sneaked in, followed by the predictably worthy mentions of Tarantino and Haneke. Even the enigmatic Mark Boal outlived Kathryn Bigelow’s elimination. So, who’s holding the fifth prestigious spot… John Gatins (Flight)? Seriously? Academy, you could do so much better here. (LOOPER, anyone?)
Follow me on Twitter: @TakisGaris. I will answer every question you might entertain about the Oscars. Also share with me any thoughts on your projected winners. Golden Globes on Sunday with live twitter coverage- only by Moviesltd.gr. The real race has just begun.
gaRis
