Let’s travel quickly through Thursday’s Nominations’ final results per Category. I dare to predict the favourite, the alternate winner and in a few certain cases the dark horse without further ado. There will be just one update which I assure you won’t be on the final day before the Awards Ceremony (February 24th): To my understanding, the final day on which the ballots are sent should equally be the final prognostications date:
Actor in a Leading Role
• Bradley Cooper in "
Silver Linings Playbook"
(Alternate Winner)
• Daniel Day-Lewis in "
Lincoln"
(Favourite)
• Hugh Jackman in "
Les Miserables"
• Joaquin Phoenix in "
The Master"
• Denzel Washington in "
Flight"
It is DDL’s third – history making leading Oscar to lose. The “should win” choice, Joaquin Phoenix barely made it in. Bradley Cooper is just happy to enjoy the ride. You know, just like Jean Dujardin last year. Too early for Lewis for the third one at his 55? Silver Linings winning big? It’s Cinderella man’s victory then.
Actor in a Supporting Role
• Alan Arkin in "
Argo"
• Robert De Niro in "
Silver Linings Playbook"
(Favourite)
• Philip Seymour Hoffman in "
The Master"
• Tommy Lee Jones in "
Lincoln"
(Alternate Winner)
• Christoph Waltz in "
Django Unchained"
Everyone’s a (past) winner here. DeNiro is clearly the emotional favourite. I hated T.L. Jones hairpiece – other than that he was nothing less than excellent in
Lincoln. If
Lincoln prevails (more than 60% probability right now) he gets it.
Actress in a Leading Role
• Jessica Chastain in "
Zero Dark Thirty"
• Jennifer Lawrence in "
Silver Linings Playbook"
(Favourite)
• Emmanuelle Riva in "
Amour"
• Quvenzhané Wallis in "
Beasts of the southern Wild"
(Dark Horse)
• Naomi Watts in "
The Impossible"
(Alternate Winner)
JLaw is awesome. She’s the real package deal. Chastain couldn’t show range in a non-actors ‘driven film. I am trying to save my venomous comment for Watts’s undeserved fifth (?) spot but she’s clearly adored. There’s a slight chance for 9 y.o. Wallis to write history. If Beasts finally strike gold, she’s right there. Riva has her 86th birthday on awards ceremony day. Some say it’s destiny for her to win.
Actress in a Supporting Role
• Amy Adams in "
The Master"
(Alternate Winner)
• Sally Field in "
Lincoln"
• Anne Hathaway in "
Les Miserables"
(Favourite)
• Helen Hunt in "
The Sessions"
• Jacki Weaver in "
Silver Linings Playbook"
How on earth it is possible to stop Hathaway’s galloping for the win after her I Dreamed a Dream performance. It’s the Hudson (Dreamgirls) effect. Funnily, Adams is overdue (see stats) in her only seven years of top tier film career. Also, take note: Jacki Weaver’s out of the blue appearance ratifies the gigantic Silver Linings ensemble appeal in the actor-centric Academy.
Animated Feature Film
• "
Brave" Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman
• "
Frankenweenie" Tim Burton
(Favourite)
• "
Paranorman" Sam Fell and Chris Butler
• "
The Pirates! Band of Misfits" Peter Lord
(Alternate Winner)
• "
Wreck-it Ralph" Rich Moore
Talking overdue Tim Burton comes directly to mind. It feels like his last chance with a very personal animated film. Although Brave and Paranorman are the obvious alternates, yet I have that hunch The Pirates can blow the house down (ZerVo). Call it my No Guts- No Glory prediction.
Cinematography
• "
Anna Karenina" Seamus McGarvey
• "
Django Unchained" Robert Richardson
• "
Life of Pi" Claudio Miranda
(Favourite)
• "
Lincoln" Janusz Kaminski
• "
Skyfall" Roger Deakins
(Alternate Winner)
Pi looks stunning, there’s no denying that. Along with the visual effects here lies the basis of
the Academy’s admiration for it. On the other hand WHEN is Deakins finally winning his so effing deserved Oscar?
Costume Design
• "
Anna Karenina" Jacqueline Durran
(Alternate Winner)
• "
Les Miserables" Paco Delgado
• "
Lincoln" Joanna Johnston
(Favourite)
• "
Mirror Mirror" Eiko Ishioka
• "
Snow White and the Huntsman" Colleen Atwood
This must be
Lincoln s turn to win here. Meticulous work, although Karenina sports flashier and lavisher costumes.
Les Miserables should win, yet costumes are the singular category that usually goes with the film that wins big at the Oscars.
Directing
• "
Amour" Michael Haneke
• "
Beasts of the southern Wild" Benh Zeitlin
(Dark Horse)
• "
Life of Pi" Ang Lee
• "
Lincoln" Steven Spielberg
(Favourite)
• "
Silver Linings Playbook" David O. Russell
(Alternate Winner)
Despite my strong objections pertaining to Spielberg’s direction, I must submit to the general consensus. Haneke and Lee are both the auteurs who the Academy recognises for their distinctive artistic vision. That leaves us with David O’Russel who had to overthrow Bigelow-Affleck-Hooper for this invaluable fifth slot for Silver Linings potential upset. Similarly, Benh Zeitlin has come a long way with his first feature and a split Best Picture – Best Director vote could result in a thunder!
Documentary Feature
• "5 Broken Cameras"
Emad Burnat and Guy Davidi
• "The Gatekeepers"
(Favourite)
Nominees to be determined
• "How to Survive a Plague"
Nominees to be determined
• "The Invisible War"
Nominees to be determined
• "Searching for Sugar Man"
(Alternate Winner)
Nominees to be determined
Without The Imposter it appears to become a rather predictable race, so unlikely for this category. Not one of the best years for docs.
Film Editing
• "
Argo" William Goldenberg
(Alternate Winner)
• "
Life of Pi" Tim Squyres
• "
Lincoln" Michael Kahn
• "
Silver Linings Playbook" Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers
• "
Zero Dark Thirty" Dylan Tichenor and William Goldenberg
(Favourite)
What
Argo and
Zero Dark Thirty have so much in common is…wait a minute! William Goldenberg. Outstanding work in both films, far more superior than the direction itself (especially in Affleck’s case).
Foreign Language Film
• "
Amour" Austria
(Favourite)
• "Kon-Tiki" Norway
• "No" Chile
• "A Royal Affair" Denmark
(Alternate Winner)
• "War Witch" Canada
Despite the long tradition of huge names losing here, I really can’t contemplate
Amour going away empty handed with its Picture, Directing, Screenplay and Lead. Actress nods. It’s simply insane not to consider this a done deal. Surprisingly enough, my *should win* in this case is the Dane A Royal Affair, knowingly being in the minority here.
Makeup and Hairstyling
• "Hitchcock"
Howard Berger, Peter Montagna and Martin Samuel
• "
The Hobbit"
(Favourite)
Peter Swords King, Rick Findlater and Tami Lane
• "
Les Miserables"
(Alternate Winner)
Lisa Westcott and Julie Dartnell
A. Hopkins’ makeup in Hitchcock is plainly atrocious. ‘Nuff said. Hobbit is marvellous where it’s expected to be.
Music (Original Score)
• "
Anna Karenina" Dario Marianelli
• "
Argo" Alexandre Desplat
• "
Life of Pi" Mychael Danna
(Alternate Winner)
• "
Lincoln" John Williams
(Favourite)
• "
Skyfall" Thomas Newman
Williams is a league of his own. His scores should be out of competition. He’s the reason why Spielberg’s films wear their hearts on their sleeves. This one is not the case. The (al)most restrained Williams’ score since times immemorial. By contrast, this is our very own (Manitoba, Canada) Mychael Danna’s (Moneyball, Exotica) first nomination. Long overdue, it might be his chance this time around.
Music (Original Song)
• "Before My Time" from "Chasing Ice"
Music and Lyric by J. Ralph
• "Everybody Needs A Best Friend" from "
Ted"
Music by Walter Murphy; Lyric by Seth MacFarlane
• "Pi's Lullaby" from "
Life of Pi"
Music by Mychael Danna; Lyric by Bombay Jayashri
• "
Skyfall" from "
Skyfall"
(Favourite)
Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth
• "Suddenly" from "
Les Miserables"
(Alternate Winner)
Music by Claude-Michel Schönberg; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil
The mere fact that
Les Miserables are so poorly represented here shows lack of voters’ backing of the film. As for Adele, she’s too big to ignore in one of the TOP 5 classiest Bond themes ever.
Best Picture
• "
Amour" Nominees to be determined
• "
Argo" Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck and George Clooney, Producers
• "
Beasts of the southern Wild" Dan Janvey, Josh Penn and Michael Gottwald, Producers
(Dark Horse)
• "
Django Unchained" Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin and Pilar Savone, Producers
• "
Les Miserables" Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward and Cameron Mackintosh, Producers
• "
Life of Pi" Gil Netter, Ang Lee and David Womark, Producers
• "
Lincoln" Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers
(Favourite)
• "
Silver Linings Playbook" Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen and Jonathan Gordon, Producers
(Alternate Winner)
• "
Zero Dark Thirty" Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow and Megan Ellison, Producers
Here comes the ultimate conundrum after a series of easy guesses year after year, in the post-Crash era.
Lincoln has “it’s mine to lose” all over its illustrious production façade.
Argo -
Django Unchained -
Zero Dark Thirty –
Les Miserables - NO directing nod.
Life of Pi no acting nods.
Amour is the predicted best film in foreign language winner and sincerely, I think The Artist was as French as it gets for the Academy. Beasts are the dark horse, being the fascinating first feature that might be a tad premature for its creator (Zeitlin) to collect this crown jewel of accolades. Yep, it’s
Silver Linings Playbook ladies and gents, that’s the little movie- that- could with nods in ALL big Oscar categories. And of course the name behind the curtain: Harvey. Harvey Weinstein.
Production Design
• "
Anna Karenina"
Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
• "
The Hobbit"
Production Design: Dan Hennah; Set Decoration: Ra Vincent and Simon Bright
• "
Les Miserables"
(Alternate Winner)
Production Design: Eve Stewart; Set Decoration: Anna Lynch-Robinson
• "
Life of Pi"
Production Design: David Gropman; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
• "
Lincoln"
(Favourite)
Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson
Lincoln should have this in the bag, particularly in case of a 6-9 statuettes sweep.
Les Miserables is all about its production design, other than that the rest is summed up in one word: Bombastic.
Sound Editing
• "
Argo" Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van der Ryn
(Alternate Winner)
• "
Django Unchained" Wylie Stateman
• "
Life of Pi" Eugene Gearty and Philip Stockton
• "
Skyfall" Per Hallberg and Karen Baker Landers
• "
Zero Dark Thirty" Paul N.J. Ottosson
(Favourite)
Ottoson’s work is really unbelievable in
Zero Dark Thirty. A notch down there’s
Argo, fatally the movie overshadowed in every single level by its *big daddy*
Zero Dark Thirty.
Sound Mixing
• "
Argo"
John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Jose Antonio Garcia
• "
Les Miserables"
(Alternate Winner)
Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson and Simon Hayes
• "
Life of Pi"
Ron Bartlett, D.M. Hemphill and Drew Kunin
• "
Lincoln"
Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom and Ronald Judkins
• "
Skyfall"
(Favourite)
Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell and Stuart Wilson
Live singing is more than just a directorial trick; it’s a Sisyphean technical task which worked impressively in
Les Miserables. But, there’s a God above and Greg P. Russell MUST win for
Skyfall.
Visual Effects
• "
The Hobbit"
(Alternate Winner)
Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and R. Christopher White
• "
Life of Pi"
(Favourite)
Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik-Jan De Boer and Donald R. Elliott
• "
The Avengers"
Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick
• "
Prometheus"
Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley and Martin Hill
• "
Snow White and the Huntsman"
Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Philip Brennan, Neil Corbould and Michael Dawson
A Hobbit vs
Life of Pi shoot –out, makes me think how awkward it feels to even begin anticipating another film to win in the year that an instalment of the Tolkien franchise is in theaters by Jackson – Del Toro and Co. However,
The Hobbit' s anaemic performance has been translated in significantly curtailed nominations and it doesn’t really appear invincible. Plus
Life of Pi brings another (natural) world to life in an incredibly seamless fashion.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
• "
Argo" Screenplay by Chris Terrio
• "
Beasts of the southern Wild" Screenplay by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
(Dark Horse)
• "
Life of Pi" Screenplay by David Magee
• "
Lincoln" Screenplay by Tony Kushner
(Favourite)
• "
Silver Linings Playbook" Screenplay by David O. Russell
(Alternate Winner)
Lincoln is strikingly Tony Kushner’s film, its epicenter and inner core gravity. If Russel will manage to upset here, it’s game over for
Lincoln s Oscar adventure. Then once again, Zeitlein’s little Beasts might overturn this year’s race. Academy is always pro surprises.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
• "
Amour" Written by Michael Haneke
(Favourite)
• "
Django Unchained" Written by Quentin Tarantino
• "
Flight" Written by John Gatins
• "
Moonrise kingdom" Written by Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
(Alternate Winner)
• "
Zero Dark Thirty" Written by Mark Boal
Last and certainly not least, this is the most ludicrous snub of the year by Academy membership. Paul Thomas Anderson is out (
The Master). It beats me to the very end of my existence. Thankfully Wes Anderson sneaked in, followed by the predictably worthy mentions of Tarantino and Haneke. Even the enigmatic Mark Boal outlived Kathryn Bigelow’s elimination. So, who’s holding the fifth prestigious spot… John Gatins (
Flight)? Seriously? Academy, you could do so much better here. (LOOPER, anyone?)
Follow me on Twitter: @TakisGaris. I will answer every question you might entertain about the Oscars. Also share with me any thoughts on your projected winners. Golden Globes on Sunday with live twitter coverage- only by Moviesltd.gr. The real race has just begun.